Washington, D.C. — Yesterday, New Democrat Coalition Action Fund Chair Annie Kuster (NH-02), National Finance Chair Marc Veasey (TX-33), and Recruitment Co-Chairs Josh Harder (CA-09) and Pat Ryan (NY-18) held a press call to discuss the Action Fund’s 41 endorsed candidates in critical House races across the country and overall efforts to win back the House. Punchbowl reported on the call. You can read the article here or below.
Punchbowl News: The Top: New Dems make bold predictions about flipping the House
October 22, 2024
The New Democrat Coalition’s campaign leaders offered an extremely rosy outlook on their chances of retaking the House, even as party leaders are far more cautious with just two weeks left until Election Day.
During a press call on Tuesday, leaders of the center-left Democratic group argued their historic investments and political strategy will be key to taking the House majority. Whether that actually happens, of course, remains to be seen. Still, it seems the 100-member group is laying the groundwork to take some of the credit should Democrats succeed.
Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) said the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund is on track to raise nearly $12 million this cycle on top of individual member contributions to their candidate recruits and incumbents.
Kuster, who has been hitting the campaign trail across the country, expressed confidence in New Dems’ strength in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as their ability to oust vulnerable Republicans in New York and California.
“Over the next two weeks, we are all going to be working around the clock to support our candidates in close races, and we are very confident that we are going to win back the majority on Nov. 5,” Kuster said.
Kuster added that she believes there’ll be a “good sense” of which party has control of the House late on Election Night or early morning the following day. She predicted California races will take longer to count, as well as Pennsylvania, due to high turnout and close races.
Democrats need to net just four seats to gain control of the House. New Dems have been highly active in shuffling money to incumbents and candidates across the country who have adopted a centrist campaign that fits the group.
Kuster will head to Michigan tomorrow. She campaigned in Pennsylvania for New Dem-endorsed candidates Janelle Stelson, challenging Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), and Ashley Ehasz, running against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), earlier this month. Kuster also boosted Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), who is in a tough race against GOP challenger Ryan Mackenzie.
Kuster cited both Pennsylvania races as potential pickups and touted Rebecca Cooke’s strength in her campaign against GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin. That race has become increasingly competitive, though Van Orden remains the favorite.
But Kuster was particularly bullish on Tony Vargas’ chances against moderate Republican Rep. Don Bacon in Nebraska.
“Tony Vargas looks like he will be able to unseat Don Bacon,” Kuster said. “That would be a very big flip… I think Don Bacon has really struggled in terms of carrying the Republican message.”
Kuster said they’ve been working with campaign consultants who helped Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) flip a GOP seat earlier this year. Suozzi adopted an effective message on immigration and border security – two GOP attacks that have plagued vulnerable Democrats this cycle.
Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas), New Dem Action finance chair, said they have especially focused on candidate message discipline against hardliners like Perry and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.).
“When you see someone like Luna who’s in a competitive race but she still wants to be the head cheerleader for MAGA, it just seems foolish,” Veasey said. “We stay away from that.”
Polls this week showed Luna and Democratic challenger Whitney Fox in a dead heat, although Luna’s campaign pushed back heavily telling us their own internal polling shows Luna ahead.
Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.), who is in a competitive race himself, boldly predicted Democrats will flip five seats in New York alone. Yet very few other senior Democrats share this view, and concede they may only flip two or three seats in the Empire State. Count House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in that category. Still, that would be a big accomplishment for Democrats.
Polls released on Tuesday by the Siena College Research Institute and Newsday have Democrat Laura Gillen with a big lead over embattled GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in New York’s 4th District, while Democratic challenger John Avlon is trailing Rep. Nick LaLota in the 1st District.
Top Democrats also privately predict that they can defeat GOP Rep. Brandon Williams in New York’s 22nd District. John Mannion is the Democratic candidate there. This is a D+1 district won handily by President Joe Biden in 2020.
Across the country, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) said there’s a pathway for five toss-up races in California and a strong chance for Janelle Bynum to beat GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon’s 5th District.
Harder noted New Dems were heavily involved in Bynum’s primary, which helped her defeat a more progressive challenger. Harder says that gives Bynum a strong advantage heading into the general election.
“We endorsed quite early, and then we got very engaged with the Bynum campaign and supported them very aggressively,” Harder said. “[Bynum] had a tremendous primary run, and now she is favored, and we’ve really seen our faith in her confirmed.”
– Mica Soellner